In niet mis te verstane bewoordingen luidt Paul Volcker, voormalig voorzitter van de Federal Reserve, de alarmbel over de recente commentaren die uit diezelfde instelling voortkomen. Volcker waarschuwt in een opiniestuk in de NYT voor de nonchalantere houding van de Fed leiding ten opzichte van inflatie en waarschuwt Bernanke voor de gevolgen van ‘een beetje hogere inflatie’.

So now we are beginning to hear murmurings about the possible invigorating effects of “just a little inflation.” Perhaps 4 or 5 percent a year would be just the thing to deal with the overhang of debt and encourage the “animal spirits” of business, or so the argument goes. … Let’s try to get business to jump the gun and invest now in the expectation of higher prices later, and raise housing prices (presumably commodities and gold, too) and maybe wages will follow. If the dollar is weakened, that’s a good thing; it might even help close the trade deficit. And of course, as soon as the economy expands sufficiently, we will promptly return to price stability. Well, good luck. … My point is not that we are on the edge today of serious inflation, which is unlikely if the Fed remains vigilant. Rather, the danger is that if, in desperation, we turn to deliberately seeking inflation to solve real problems — our economic imbalances, sluggish productivity, and excessive leverage — we would soon find that a little inflation doesn’t work. Then the instinct will be to do a little more — a seemingly temporary and “reasonable” 4 percent becomes 5, and then 6 and so on. … At a time when foreign countries own trillions of our dollars, when we are dependent on borrowing still more abroad, and when the whole world counts on the dollar’s maintaining its purchasing power, taking on the risks of deliberately promoting inflation would be simply irresponsible. It is that conviction that underlies Mr. Bernanke’s six words.

Het stuk is een finale oproep van Volcker aan het adres van de Fed, maar vooral recht op de man Ben Bernanke, om niet aan de verleidingen van een hogere inflatie toe te geven. Volcker vergeet echter dat alle studies en publicaties van Bernanke uit het verleden gecentraliseerd zijn rond de creatie van inflatie! Dus Paul, good luck.