The numbers:

• Non-farm payrolls fell 125K
• Unemployment is at 9.5%
• PRIVATE job creation was just over 80K, which was weak.

Context: The market is thirsty for a good number here, following a very weak May report, and a string of consistently mediocre economic reports since then, including major stagnation in weekly claims. A few headline numbers to look for:

• The market is looking for a payrolls decline of about 100 to 110K owing to major cutbacks in the Census.
• Deutsche bank expects Census cuts to hit 230K, which means private payroll GAINS need to be over 100K to compensate.
• The unemployment rate is expected to be around 9.8%, but this number has become somewhat secondary and ignored, owing to fluctuations that result from people moving from the discouraged worker category to the actively seekers.

Grafisch ziet de huidige job-cyclus in de VS er als volgt uit volgens Calculated Risk: Scared yet?