1 januari 2013: GREXIT Tenminste, daar is Citigroup’s Michael Saunders inmiddels vrij zeker van, zonder voor de volle 100 procent te gaan. De econoom van de zakenbank gaf de volgende uitleg mee aan de klanten:

Greece will leave EMU on 1 January 2013. We believe the ECB will be willing to provide liquidity support for Greek banks (to replace lost deposits) until the June 17 election, either directly or via the expansion of Greece’s ELA. But, we assume that the election will not produce a viable government that can follow the Troika plan, leading to a stalemate between the Greek government and official creditors, and to the suspension of EFSF/IMF funding. The government’s cash reserves are limited, and probably will be exhausted well before year-end. Under these conditions, Greek EMU exit could be triggered by the government’s need to print money to cover its spending, or to fill the gap left by the outflow of deposits (if the ECB refuses to allow liquidity support directly or by vetoing the use of ELA). Of course, we acknowledge the possibility that the timetable could be stretched out considerably by, for example, the use of internal IOUs by the Greek government or the provision of “last chance” temporary funding from EU policymakers on a week-to-week basis.

Voorheen was Saunders nog maar 50 à 75 procent zeker van zijn stuk, dus de overtuiging van de Citigroup econoom van een GREXIT is sterk toegenomen in de afgelopen weken. Michael Saunders is overigens niet de enige beer bij Citi. Hij werkt er nauw samen met William Buiter, de meest uitgesproken beer van het moment onder de strategen.