Bij Slim Beleggen kunnen we ons in grote mate vinden in de visie van Eric Sprott. De uitbraak van olie is ook Sprott niet ontgaan. De nieuwste ‘move’ leunt opnieuw dicht aan bij onze filosofie. Sprott AM gaat voluit voor olie- en oliegerelateerde aandelen zoals olieservicebedrijven. Via Bloomberg:
“It has everything to do with fear and little to do with actual fundamentals,” Sprott Inc.’s Eric Nuttall, whose Sprott Energy Fund is up 16 percent this month, said of oil stocks. “When people are in a fear-driven mode, fundamentals can be irrelevant in the short term. Eventually, the stock market will always be fundamentals-driven.”
Opmerkelijk: de recente verliesreeks van olieaandelen is voor het eerst in 17 jaar groter dan de daling van de olieprijs! Fondsen zoals Sprott vinden de daling van de sector dan ook fors overdreven, wat hun aan het kopen heeft gezet. Ook wij onderstrepen de onderwaardering van de energiesector in het Grondstoffen Rapport. De waardering van het grondstoffensegment is (te) fors terugevallen:
The S&P GSCI Index of 24 raw materials lost 12 percent last quarter, the biggest retreat since 2008. Copper fell 26 percent, crude oil retreated 17 percent and aluminum slumped 15 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Commodities are projected to rise in 2012. West Texas Intermediate crude oil may rise to $95 a barrel at the end of next year from $87.40 on Oct. 21, the median estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg shows. Declines that erased more than half the value from Luxembourg-based ArcelorMittal, Vedanta Resources in London and Helsinki-based Stora Enso drove down the price-earnings ratio for materials stocks as much as 50 percent from the 2011 high, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Before this year, the only time the shares were cheaper was during the 2008 credit crisis, data compiled by Bloomberg since 1995 show. Mining and chemical companies in the U.S. are trading at 12.1 times analysts’ forecast profit for 2012, compared with 12.6 times for the full Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. Valuations fell even as analysts cut their 2011 earnings estimates by 3.7 percent since the start of September, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
De historische onderwaardering zet de sector in de kijker voor koopjesjagers. De recente monsterovername van Kinder Morgan op El Paso is hiervan een goed voorbeeld. Er duiken steeds meer overnames op in het grondstoffensegment, waar we herhaaldelijk op hamerden:
Statoil ASA, Norway’s biggest oil company, said it plans to buy Brigham Exploration Co. for about $4.4 billion. New Gold, which mines gold in California, Mexico and Australia, said last week it is buying Silver Quest Resources and Geo Minerals in an all-stock deal valued at C$121 million. “The Chinese slowdown is exaggerated, the world continues to demand more oil and there will be a reacceleration in commodities prices as we move into 2012,” Tom Wirth, who helps manage $1.5 billion as senior investment officer for Chemung Canal Trust Co., in Elmira, New York, said in a telephone interview on Oct. 18. “These companies are in far better shape than they were in 2008.”